Routing Guide Depth Thins as Carriers Regain Leverage in Truckload

Shippers are running into concrete execution problems. Primary carriers are turning down more contracted loads than models anticipated, pushing volume onto spot markets where rates moved up sharply in the first half of the year. This creates immediate cost overruns and forces transportation teams to scramble for capacity on short notice. Missed drayage appointments at distribution centers trigger detention and demurrage that eat into margins quickly when windows are tight. Exception handling volume rises as routing guide compliance slips and lane-level surprises appear from tighter driver supply. The FMCSA rule on non-domiciled CDLs, effective in March, adds another layer of structural risk that planning systems built on 2025 assumptions did not fully price in.

RXO’s Curve report captured some of the clearest signals. Spot rates excluding fuel rose 16.5% year-over-year in Q1, the fastest pace since Q3 2021. Tender rejections reached their highest point since 2022 even in a traditionally slow quarter. FreightWaves data showed tender rejections peaking at 13.24% during the 2025 peak season, well above the 7-8% level that typically signals tightening, with spot rates climbing as much as 18.9% from seasonal lows in some periods.

Carrier Selectivity Reshapes Execution Reliability

Corey Klujsza, Vice President of Pricing and Procurement Strategy at RXO, replied in writing to The Supply Chainer’s inquiry on current market conditions.

"What jumps out to me is the 16.5% year-over-year increase in truckload spot rates in Q1, excluding fuel - which is the highest rate of growth since Q3 2021. On top of all that, industry-wide tender rejections hit their highest levels since 2022 during Q1, traditionally the slowest quarter of the year so we know that's not a seasonal spike.

Shippers still operating on contract rates set in early 2025 are going to feel the squeeze since the routing guide depth they've relied on is deteriorating, and spot exposure is becoming harder to avoid. For much of 2025, supply was mostly balanced with overall demand, and many carriers were pressured to absorb rates below their cost of operations because they needed the freight."

“Shippers still operating on contract rates set in early 2025 are going to feel the squeeze” said Corey Klujsza, VP Pricing and Procurement Strategy, RXO

The point is that contract portfolios set in softer conditions are now being tested in real time, and the gap between planned and actual coverage is widening faster than most models expected.

Klujsza continued on the operational fallout. "As spot rates crossed above contract at the end of 2025 and held through Q2, carriers have more options again. As supply continues to come out of the market, carriers are less inclined to accept a contracted load priced below market. The result is that execution reliability on primary tenders has declined, routing guide compliance is pressured, and spot exposure is outpacing what the models anticipated. This is the new baseline, and planning teams need to build wider variance between expected and actual coverage rates into their execution models."

The point is that lane-level planning without updated assumptions on driver availability and carrier economics produces repeated surprises in the second half of the year.

Standardization Gaps Compound Market Friction

Lisa Chen, Global Head of Operations at Kuehne+Nagel, made a related point in an earlier Supply Chainer article on multi-site execution challenges.

“The companies that achieve true multi-site standardization don’t just save money - they move significantly faster than their competitors when implementing new technology.”

Spencer Frazier, head of sales and marketing at J.B. Hunt Transport Services, told investors at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference (reported by FreightWaves).

“Mini-bid activity has spiked, and some shippers have been forced to rebid their entire book as tender rejections surge.”

The point is that fragmented processes and data across sites make it harder to absorb sudden shifts in carrier behavior or capacity without driving up exception costs and delaying decisions.

Mid-to-large shippers are responding by stress-testing contract books earlier, consolidating freight with scaled providers, and adding modal options where capacity is constrained. These moves reflect a shift from assuming stable routing guide performance to actively managing higher variance and exception volume. Without those adjustments, budgeted transportation spend and service commitments erode faster when primary tenders fail.