Weather, Rates And Trade Policy Volatility Continue To Reshape Global Freight Markets

Global freight markets entered February under renewed pressure as winter weather disruptions, easing pre–Lunar New Year demand, and persistent trade policy uncertainty combined to weigh on both ocean and air cargo dynamics. While operational disruptions mounted across key regions, pricing trends underscored how fragile demand remains across major trade lanes.

Disruptions Rise As Rates Continue To Slide

Severe winter weather has complicated logistics on both sides of the Atlantic. Parts of the US Southeast are still recovering from last week’s storm, while North Atlantic weather disrupted vessel traffic and temporarily shut down container ports across Western Europe and the Mediterranean. Although operations have restarted, accumulated delays and forecasts of worsening conditions raise the risk of congestion at Northern European ports.

Despite these disruptions, ocean freight rates continued to decline. Asia–Europe prices fell 5% last week, with daily rates sliding to about $2,600 per FEU for Northern Europe and $3,800 per FEU for the Mediterranean, down sharply from January highs. Transpacific lanes followed a similar pattern, with Asia–US West Coast rates dropping 10% to roughly $2,400 per FEU and continuing lower toward $1,900 per FEU early this week. Asia–US East Coast prices eased to about $3,850 per FEU.

Trade Policy Signals Add To Market Uncertainty

In comments shared with The Supply Chainer, Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said trade volatility remains a defining factor shaping demand. He noted that prices across major lanes are now significantly lower than a year ago, driven in part by fleet growth and overcapacity.

Levine pointed to shifting US trade policy as both a drag and a potential catalyst. Container volumes between India and the US have slumped since the introduction of 50% tariffs last year, though a newly announced agreement to reduce tariffs to 18% could support a rebound once formally implemented. At the same time, new tariff threats targeting countries selling oil to Cuba and potential action against Canada’s aviation sector are reinforcing uncertainty for shippers.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos

Air Cargo Shows Mixed Signals Ahead Of LNY

Air freight markets showed pockets of strength ahead of Lunar New Year. China–US air cargo rates climbed to $6.74 per kilogram last week, up from early January levels, while Southeast Asia–US prices also rebounded toward $5.00 per kilogram. By contrast, China–Europe rates dipped 4%, even as Southeast Asia–Europe and transatlantic lanes recorded weekly gains.

For supply chain and logistics leaders, the current environment highlights a familiar tension. Operational disruptions from weather and geopolitics are intensifying, yet freight rates continue to soften as demand remains uneven. As 2026 unfolds, the ability to adapt routing, inventory positioning, and sourcing strategies quickly may matter more than short-term pricing signals in navigating a still-fragmented global freight landscape.