Bab el-Mandeb Disruption Exposes a Vessel-Level Visibility Gap

The latest escalation around Bab el-Mandeb has turned a familiar routing problem into a more immediate operational risk. Following the Houthi takeover of Perim Island, which divides the strait into two shipping lanes, carriers must assess not only whether to enter the Red Sea but whether the vessel, cargo, insurance cover and available security measures justify the transit.

For shippers, the first problem is often a lack of control. A booking may identify a service through the Red Sea, but the ultimate route can change shortly before arrival at the strait. Cargo may also be transferred to another vessel at an intermediate port, leaving the original booking data disconnected from the ship that eventually carries the container.

The operational consequences include uncertain arrival dates, longer inventory exposure, missed production windows and difficulty communicating reliable delivery dates to customers.

Routing Decisions Remain Outside the Shipper’s Control

Corey D. Ranslem of maritime security intelligence company Dryad Global said traffic through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb fell by about 85% at the peak of the disruption, with only limited recovery since then. In a written response to questions from The Supply Chainer, he warned that continuing Houthi activity north of the strait and piracy risks to the south could reduce traffic further.

“Going around the Cape can add up to 25 days depending on the departure, destination and weather. Cargo shippers may not have direct visibility into whether a ship will transit the region because those decisions are sometimes made at the last minute. The decision is usually made between the vessel owner and chartering party, depending on the contract. Shippers therefore need to understand the regional threat as well as the capabilities and protection measures employed by the vessel carrying their cargo.”

Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported in August that vessel traffic through Bab el-Mandeb had fallen by approximately 24% following the Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. Traffic subsequently stabilized, but the reduction remained concentrated in the tanker sector.

That figure describes the number of vessels moving through the chokepoint, but it does not tell an individual importer whether a specific container will follow the scheduled route.

A Booking Confirmation Is No Longer Enough

Matt Fotouhi, Chief Product and Innovation Officer at logistics software company Magaya, argued that visibility must move from the booking level to the container and voyage level.

“Your booking confirmation will not tell you what you need to know now. It shows the service and ETA published when the cargo was booked, and neither necessarily survives a routing change. Shippers need the vessel and voyage assigned to their specific containers, that voyage’s current port rotation and its change history. Knowing that an ETA shifted by 18 days last Tuesday can be more useful than knowing what it says today. The required data often exists in carrier messages and AIS feeds, but it is rarely connected with the purchase order and customs entry.”

The gap becomes more pronounced during transshipment. A container booked on a Red Sea service may be discharged at a hub and transferred to a vessel taking a different route. Unless carrier messages, AIS information and internal order data are connected, the shipper may see a revised ETA without understanding what caused it.

Live Tracking Can Become Less Reliable During Conflict

Greater dependence on AIS does not eliminate the risk. Legitimate vessels may stop transmitting for security reasons, while sanctioned or high-risk operators can use the same uncertainty to conceal their movements. Mark J. Spalding, President and CEO of The Ocean Foundation, told The Supply Chainer in written comments that vessel-level due diligence should take place before cargo is committed.

“In conflict zones, AIS reliability can degrade sharply. Legitimate vessels may go dark for their own safety, while the same cover is used by vessels with something to hide. Shippers and charterers should not rely only on live tracking when routing through or around Bab el-Mandeb. They should verify the vessel’s insurance status, flag history and any pattern of AIS manipulation or ship-to-ship transfers before committing cargo. Once conditions in the strait become chaotic, a live position alone may not provide the information needed to assess the vessel or the exposure.”

The emerging lesson is that visibility is no longer simply the ability to locate a ship on a map. It requires connecting container assignments, voyage changes, transshipment events, insurance status and vessel-risk history. Without that connection, more tracking data can still leave supply-chain teams unable to answer the operational question that matters: when, how and on which vessel will the cargo arrive?