DHL Sees Panama Route Diversions, but Los Angeles’ Record Has More Than One Driver
Cargo owners are asking to move shipments through US West Coast ports and then inland to Gulf destinations, according to DHL Global Forwarding. That provides evidence of routing changes associated with Panama Canal concerns, but it does not establish how much those diversions contributed to Los Angeles’ record September. The distinction matters for importers deciding whether to change gateways before holiday inventory arrives. Avoiding one uncertain passage can introduce additional handling, inland transit and delivery risks elsewhere.
A Record Month Without a Single Explanation
The Port of Los Angeles handled 1,042,652 twenty-foot equivalent units in September 2026, its busiest month on record. Loaded imports reached 545,696 TEUs, up 19% from September last year. In its October 9 announcement, the port identified resilient consumer spending, inventory replenishment, greater tariff certainty and challenges along the Suez and Panama Canal routes as contributing factors. Its figures establish the scale of activity, but do not isolate the cargo attributable to Panama-related diversions.
Goetz Alebrand, SVP, Ocean Freight for DHL Global Forwarding, North America, confirmed that customers are considering alternatives. “Yes, we see customers shifting routes and have requests to stop at the US West Coast and rail/truck to the destination in the Gulf region,” he told The Supply Chainer in written responses. However, DHL cannot yet quantify the significance of that movement. Alebrand also cautioned that it is too early to conclude that Panama-related diversions represent a structural shift toward West Coast ports.
His explanation places the canal within a wider set of commercial pressures. Middle East disruption, consumer demand, replenishment following greater tariff certainty and early holiday shipments are influencing volumes simultaneously, Alebrand said. A stronger West Coast gateway can therefore reflect several decisions that happen to produce the same routing outcome. Treating all additional containers as evidence of a lasting canal bypass would overstate what the available observations show.
Canal Conditions Require a Current Reading
Recent operational announcements also complicate the picture of steadily tightening canal access. The Panama Canal Authority postponed a reduction in the maximum Neopanamax draft that had been scheduled for October 1. A subsequent announcement set the maximum authorized draft at 49 feet and increased daily Neopanamax transits to 10 from October 15, within a stated total of 33 daily slots across both lock systems. These changes show that assessments of routing risk need to distinguish earlier restrictions from subsequent improvements.
Improved access does not remove every scheduling concern. The authority said a water deficit remained in the watershed and warned that vessels without reservations could face indefinite delays. For cargo owners, that makes the availability of a dependable transit date relevant alongside the permitted vessel draft. The operational question is whether the specific service can deliver the required timing under current conditions.
The Inland Leg Can Change the Answer
Alebrand said Shanghai-to-Texas transit times can appear relatively comparable when contrasting Los Angeles or Long Beach plus inland transport with a Panama Canal route to Houston. Once port dwell and rail transit are included, however, the West Coast mini-landbridge option is typically longer, he said. “Port congestion, inland connections and other potential disruptions can materially affect delivery reliability,” Alebrand added. An earlier ocean arrival therefore does not necessarily translate into earlier availability at the destination.
Barry Bradley, Senior Director of Partnerships and Supply Chain at Crisp, argued that routing decisions need to connect operational information with the commercial consequences of delay. “What’s critical for success in this rapidly changing and unpredictable environment is building agility into the supply chain to quickly respond to new information,” he told The Supply Chainer. Bradley recommended comparing canal waiting times, volume limits and transport costs against West Coast intermodal alternatives. He said real-time data and AI-supported updates to total landed cost models could help companies act before late inventory misses peak demand.
The broader freight market offers another reason to keep those comparisons current. In his October 13 weekly update, Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said West Coast rates had dipped and “could signal the start of a downward trend with Golden Week behind us.” That observation concerns freight pricing rather than proof of a permanent gateway shift. For an importer choosing between Houston and Los Angeles, the decisive comparison remains the full journey: the current sailing, canal access, inland connection, total cost and the date inventory becomes available for sale.
