Retailers Look Beyond China as Volatility Persists: DHL, Transfix and Assent’s Perspectives

For decades, China was the undisputed anchor of global retail sourcing—a market with scale, efficiency, and infrastructure too vast to rival. But in 2025, that dominance is under steady erosion as supply chain leaders grapple with a new calculus: tariffs, geopolitics, and resilience over cost alone. Recent disruptions—from the India-Pakistan corridor crisis to fluctuating U.S. tariff policies—are reshaping sourcing behavior across the retail sector. And while few are fully decoupling from China, a clear trend is emerging: diversification is no longer optional.

Transfix: Shippers Are Already Shifting to Vietnam, India and Canada

“We’re seeing a major shift in global ocean freight volumes,” said Carly Gunby, VP of Revenue at Transfix, in a written response to The Supply Chainer. “China-to-U.S. imports are down 40% year-over-year, while volumes out of Vietnam and India are climbing.”

Even more striking is a surge in activity at Canadian ports—an alternative some U.S. importers are leaning into to avoid congestion and uncertainty at U.S. terminals.

“This isn’t just a blip,” Gunby continued. “It’s a signal. Freight is moving differently because sourcing decisions are shifting—and they’re being accelerated by real-time tariff changes and cost sensitivity.”

According to Transfix, the rerouting of goods is also forcing changes in final-mile strategy, with LTL (less-than-truckload) modes becoming more critical in the U.S. and Canada to meet decentralized fulfillment patterns. That, in turn, is driving demand for smarter forecasting and rate modeling at the brokerage level.

Carly Gunby, VP of Revenue at Transfix

Assent: Data, Not Panic, Is Driving the Smartest Sourcing Shifts

While many retailers are actively diversifying sourcing, others are still in the decision-making phase—focused less on geography and more on clarity. According to Jared Connors, Director of Sustainability at Assent, most companies are asking two core questions: “Will this supplier cost me more to work with?” and “Can I even source from them anymore?”

“The actual shift is still in the analysis phase,” Connors told The Supply Chainer. “The smart money is digging deep into supplier data—examining origin of raw materials, trade classifications, and any applicable tariff exclusions—to understand the true impact of U.S.-China volatility.”

This data-centric approach is also being applied to metals sourcing, where overdependence on China could lead to severe disruption. “It’s all about knowing what you’re up against before making a move. Otherwise, you might just be trading one tariff problem for another,” Connors explained. To stay ahead, companies are leaning into tools that can not only collect supply chain data but also analyze and flag risk exposure. “Think of it like headlights and high beams,” Connors added. “The data tools let you see what’s immediately in front of you. But turn on the AI—and suddenly you’re seeing much further down the road.”

DHL: Clients Are Rethinking Sourcing, Not Just Routing

For its part, DHL Group has seen the same directional trend—but adds nuance: while volumes are moving, companies aren’t necessarily abandoning China entirely. Instead, many are layering in Southeast Asia and Latin America as secondary sources.

“There’s increased interest in alternative sourcing regions,” said Daniel McGrath, Head of Communications & Sustainability for EMEA at DHL Group, in a written response to The Supply Chainer. “But decisions are still based on total landed cost, market access, workforce skills, and infrastructure—not just tariffs.”

That view reflects a broader challenge for sourcing managers: how to diversify without degrading supply chain efficiency. In other words, proximity alone doesn’t guarantee resilience. Without strong logistics partnerships and visibility, new sourcing regions can expose companies to new forms of risk—fragmentation, compliance friction, and lead time volatility.

To bridge that gap, DHL offers tailored logistics consulting, customs integration, and regionalized supply chain planning. “We’re helping clients model the long-term impact of sourcing shifts using both physical infrastructure and AI-powered tools,” McGrath said.

Cost Isn't the Only Variable Anymore

The logic of offshoring has always leaned heavily on unit economics. But in a world where availability, agility, and risk exposure now carry real balance sheet consequences, the equation has shifted. Gunby put it succinctly: “Shippers that once focused purely on lowest-cost sourcing are now thinking about risk-adjusted velocity. You don’t just ask where it’s cheapest—you ask where it’s most reliable when the next disruption hits.”

That mindset is filtering through procurement teams, CFOs, and even investors. As supply chain visibility becomes a boardroom metric, multi-region sourcing strategies are gaining executive buy-in—even when they carry marginal cost increases.

What Comes After China?

Not a full replacement. Not yet. But a recalibrated strategy that assumes China is no longer a single point of truth for retail sourcing. Retailers and their supply chain vendors are building new muscle: evaluating India’s textile zones, testing Mexican assembly for U.S. proximity, and reassessing the risk premium baked into Taiwan-based semiconductor supply.

It’s not a clean break. But it is a structural shift, and one that’s already reshaping freight flows, port utilization, and logistics capacity planning across North America.

In this new reality, resilience isn’t a KPI—it’s the playbook. And it’s being written one vendor, one country, and one SKU at a time.