Tariff Clock Ticks Down as China–U.S. Ocean Rates Rebound Sharply

With the China–U.S. tariff de-escalation set to expire on August 14—and the reciprocal U.S. tariff pause with other trade partners ending even sooner on July 9—shippers are entering a high-stakes window to move goods before a new wave of levies potentially returns. And it's already reshaping freight flows, pricing, and capacity across the Pacific.

According to the latest market update from Freightos, transpacific ocean demand is climbing sharply as U.S. importers rush to frontload shipments from China, anticipating both peak season pressure and renewed tariff costs.

“We’re seeing a big bump in China–U.S. ocean demand,” said Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos. “Carriers are announcing aggressive rate hikes that could push West Coast container prices to $8,000 per FEU by mid-June if successful.”

Rates to the East Coast have already surged $1,000 this week to $4,400 per FEU, with spot pricing to the West Coast climbing to $2,800 per FEU—up $400 since Monday. Carriers are rushing to restore sailings cancelled during the April lull, but many ships and containers had been reallocated to other global routes and remain out of position, triggering equipment shortages and port congestion in China.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Gold, VP of Supply Chain at the National Retail Federation, offered a sobering outlook during Freightos’ May webinar, suggesting the rebound may not just be temporary.

“Frontloading is back—not only because of the tariff uncertainty, but because many seasonal orders hadn’t yet shipped,” said Gold. “It’s shaping up to be a strong, early peak season that may last into August.”

Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Urgency

The lack of clarity over whether goods must arrive in the U.S. or merely be loaded at origin by the tariff deadlines is adding another layer of pressure. If arrival is the requirement, importers have just weeks left to move goods by sea from Asia before July 9.

President Trump has stated publicly that he’s skeptical any comprehensive trade deals will be struck before the July deadline—with the exception of the UK—and warned that the U.S. may unilaterally reimpose tariffs soon.

On top of that, a 30% minimum tariff on Chinese goods remains in place following April’s increases. While this may cap just how much transpacific volumes can rise, it hasn’t yet dampened early peak season momentum.

Buffers.ai: SKU Volatility Creating Replenishment Headaches

Pini Usha, CEO of Buffers.ai, emphasized that the tariff-driven disruptions are shaking the foundations of some importers’ supply chains—particularly in the U.S. retail sector. “This kind of volatility is triggering large-scale instability for many of our clients, especially American importers,” Usha told The Supply Chainer. “Adjusting supply chain processes on the fly—sometimes involving thousands of SKUs—is extremely challenging. When it's done manually or managed with spreadsheets, it immediately impacts replenishment and assortment decisions, often resulting in stockouts and missed sales.”

Buffers.ai provides global fashion brands with an ERP-integrated inventory optimization solution that uses AI to stabilize forecasting and automate replenishment planning. As Usha noted, “The stakes are too high for guesswork. Automation helps our clients stay responsive without losing control.”

We recently covered the success story of an accessories retail chain that leveraged the Buffers.ai platform to identify best-selling products while minimizing the inventory needed to keep operations running smoothly.

C.H. Robinson: Pent-Up Cargo and a Staggered Rebound

Mike Short, President of Global Forwarding at C.H. Robinson, added that while ocean demand is rebounding, the surge may be more staggered than sudden. “When the tariffs on goods from China abruptly accelerated in April, demand dropped just as fast. Now that tariffs have been lowered, we’re expecting a burst of pent-up cargo starting in two or three weeks,” Short said. “Some customers had goods stored at origin and are ready to ship. Others are cutting new purchase orders now, asking suppliers to produce and ship within the 90-day window.”

Short noted that whether companies could frontload earlier this year depended on capital, storage capacity, and product type. “Some of our 7,500 retail clients stocked up early, but smaller businesses took a wait-and-see approach. Industrial manufacturers rarely frontload—they operate on longer timelines and can’t afford to sit on excess materials. Even in automotive, it varied. A small part might make sense to stock, but not bulky, model-specific components.” He added that vessel repositioning is a new bottleneck. “After tariffs rose in April, 20–30% of transpacific capacity to the West Coast and up to 40% to the East Coast was pulled. Some ships are anchored in Shanghai, waiting. Others need weeks to get back into position. Carriers have responded with new rate increases effective immediately, with more slated for June 1.” Given typical ocean transit times, he anticipates the freight rush will start landing at U.S. ports by late June—setting the stage for an earlier-than-usual peak season.

Air Cargo Holds Steady but Faces Route Rebalancing

On the air cargo side, the suspension of de minimis eligibility for Chinese goods has slashed e-commerce volumes in the transpacific market. Still, spot rates remain elevated, with Freightos Air Index showing China–U.S. prices at $5.50/kg—unchanged from early April. “That freighter capacity may be shifting to other trade lanes now,” Levine noted. “We’re watching closely to see how that impacts rate levels elsewhere.”

Key Weekly Rate Changes:

• Asia–U.S. West Coast: +3% to $2,462/FEU

• Asia–U.S. East Coast: +3% to $3,520/FEU

• Asia–N. Europe: +3% to $2,459/FEU

• Asia–Mediterranean: +1% to $2,979/FEU

• Air (China–N. America): +4% to $5.50/kg

• Air (China–N. Europe): +1% to $3.53/kg

• Air (N. Europe–N. America): –1% to $1.88/kg

  
  

With just weeks left in the tariff reprieve, importers are weighing speed versus cost, reliability versus risk. Whether the current surge marks a sustained rebound or a short-term rush remains to be seen. But as one carrier exec recently told The Supply Chainer: “This isn’t just volatility—it’s velocity.”