Returns Are Eating Your Margins — Gartner and Freightgate Say It's Time to Fight Back

As supply chain leaders brace for another volatile year, Gartner has issued a stark warning: reverse logistics is becoming one of the most critical — and costly — elements of supply chain performance.

“By 2030, Gartner predicts e-commerce retailers and consumer electronics companies will spend twice as much on managing reverse and returns logistics as on outbound orders and deliveries,” said David Gonzalez, Vice President Analyst at Gartner Supply Chain, in a written statement to The Supply Chainer.

Gonzalez emphasized that most logistics strategies remain overly focused on outbound flows. Meanwhile, returns processes are still fragmented, reactive, and expensive — especially in sectors with high return volumes such as fashion and electronics. According to Gartner, for some specialty retailers, only 35% of returned goods are resold at full price, with the remainder either heavily discounted or discarded. “Enterprises must take ownership of their returns and reverse logistics strategy. This involves organizing resources to capture the cost of returns, detailing associated complexities, and creating a centralized team responsible for overseeing the process,” Gonzalez added.

Freightgate’s SmartAI Stack Targets Returns at the Core

Tech vendors are answering the call. Freightgate, newly named to The Supply Chainer’s 2025 Top 100 Logistics Tech Providers, is investing heavily in SmartAI tools and circular optimization stacks that help businesses re-architect supply chains with reverse flows in mind.

“We're pushing the envelope of what’s possible with smarter orchestration and logisticsCloud modules,” said Martin Hubert, CEO and President of Freightgate. “From processing compliance data with AI to transforming static return emails into automated workflows, we’re giving logistics teams the building blocks they need to turn reverse logistics into a strategic advantage.”

Freightgate’s system now lets shippers simulate thousands of return pathways — optimizing not just for speed or cost, but for risk, carbon footprint, and long-term profitability.

NVIDIA Sees Digital Twins Driving Predictive Returns

In a broader view of the market, NVIDIA told The Supply Chainer that retailers and logistics teams are embracing AI-powered simulation, digital twins, and edge computing to better anticipate and manage return cycles. Companies like Kroger and Lowe’s are already leveraging NVIDIA Omniverse to model customer flow, detect shrinkage patterns, and fine-tune fulfillment strategies. NVIDIA’s AI Blueprints and Enterprise platform are allowing lean supply chain teams to scale innovations quickly — particularly in complex reverse flows where timing and visibility are everything.

TopTen and AI Inventory Optimization in Fast Fashion

These strategies are already delivering tangible results. Just last week, The Supply Chainer spotlighted a real-world success story from TopTen, a rapidly growing fashion retailer specializing in accessories. By combining its internal data with Buffers.ai’s AI-driven inventory optimization platform, TopTen was able to fine-tune stock levels, reduce return volumes, and significantly increase sell-through and capital efficiency.

By predicting demand more precisely and aligning stock to actual customer behavior, TopTen avoided the twin pitfalls of overstocking and understocking — both of which contribute to excessive returns. The result: fewer markdowns, stronger margins, and a smarter front-end defense against reverse logistics waste.