ASDA Veteran Warns Supply Chain Decisions Often Fail Where Leaders Least Expect

Major retail supply chains are facing a growing decision-making challenge. As network redesigns, automation programs, and service transformation initiatives increase in scale and complexity, many organizations are struggling to understand how strategic decisions will affect day-to-day operations before implementation.

That is one of the central findings of Kallikor's new Deciding in the Dark report, based on research conducted among 200 senior retail supply chain leaders in the UK and US. According to the study, fewer than one in five major supply chain decisions are ultimately delivered as intended, while 92% of respondents reported unintended performance trade-offs emerging elsewhere in the business following major initiatives.

The findings suggest that many organizations continue to evaluate strategic and operational impacts separately, despite increasingly interconnected supply chain networks.

Complexity Outpaces Traditional Planning

The report found that 63.5% of leaders are unable to evaluate decisions both end-to-end and in operational reality, while nearly nine in ten expect to execute at least one major transformation initiative during the next 12 months.

According to the research, slow decision-making is becoming a competitive issue in its own right. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said prolonged decision cycles reduce their willingness to pursue bold change. In a written response provided to The Supply Chainer, Mark Simpson, former Chief Supply Chain Officer at ASDA, argued that supply chain transformations often fail indirectly rather than through obvious execution breakdowns.

“The sorts of decisions involved in supply chain transformations rarely fail in a clean, obvious way. What I've seen is that the impact shows up somewhere else in the business, often only after you've already committed. The challenge is moving the business forward, without creating unintended consequences you couldn't see at the point of decision. And in many organisations, that comes back to how those decisions are evaluated. The approaches haven't kept pace with the complexity of the systems they're trying to change.”

The challenge becomes more acute as organizations attempt to balance cost reduction, automation, service levels, labor constraints, transportation efficiency, and inventory performance simultaneously.

Visibility Alone Is No Longer Enough

The findings echo concerns raised during a recent roundtable discussion hosted by Tom Raftery on supply chain visibility and execution. In that discussion, Adam Newsome, CEO of Lazer Logistics, observed that yard operations remain one of the most underestimated failure points in supply chain execution, while Blaine Dirker noted that organizations may have strong upstream visibility but still struggle when downstream execution data is incomplete.

Together, those observations point to a broader industry shift. Visibility platforms have improved access to data, but many organizations still struggle to predict how decisions will affect interconnected operational processes across transportation, warehousing, inventory, and fulfillment networks.

The Cost of Decision Uncertainty

The report also highlights the personal dimension of supply chain decision-making. Ninety percent of respondents reported concerns about reputational risk, and 60% ranked personal or reputational risk among the biggest barriers to making major decisions.

In a written reply to an inquiry from The Supply Chainer, Jonathan Barrett, CEO of Kallikor, said current decision-support approaches were built for a less complex operating environment.

"Supply chain leaders are being asked to make decisions of a different order to what came before, but the tools available to them have not kept pace. They were built for a simpler, more stable operating environment. Leaders are being underserved by what exists, and our research shows the consequences of that gap are significant. Fewer than one in five major decisions are delivered as intended. That is not a leadership problem. It is a decision environment problem, and it is one that is entirely solvable."

Jonathan Barrett, CEO, Kallikor, “It is a decision environment problem.”

As supply chains become more interconnected, the ability to evaluate strategic decisions against operational reality before capital is committed may become an increasingly important differentiator for retailers pursuing large-scale transformation programs.