As US Ends De Minimis Exemptions, Ocean Rates Keep Falling And Order Book Swells

Amid the US move to end de minimis exemptions for low value imports, Freightos says ocean spot prices on key lanes continue to slide even as carriers take delivery of more capacity. The Supply Chainer is hearing the same tension from operators: policy shocks and a growing order book on one side, softer demand and longer lead times on the other.

Why It Matters Now

Lower spot rates look friendly, but they can mask new costs. Ending de minimis will push more parcels into formal entries, adding paperwork, duties and delays just as teams are locking Q4 allocations. With Red Sea diversions still stretching transits, a misread on landed cost, service level or mode mix can erase any savings from today’s cheaper boxes.

Market Picture

Freightos highlights a steady downtrend since the early rush to beat tariff deadlines. Asia–US West Coast fell about 10% last week to $1,744/FEU, the lane’s lowest since December 2023, while Asia–US East Coast dropped 21% to $2,733/FEU. Asia–North Europe eased to roughly $3,100/FEU, about 60% below last year. Air prices are stable to slightly up as freighter capacity shifts between trades.

“Even as the tariff landscape on the country level seems to be solidifying, trade probes on specific goods like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber – including furniture – requested by President Trump earlier in the year are now concluded or nearing completion, and could mean additional sectoral tariffs soon.

“For some countries that have reached trade agreements with the US, tariffs meant to be reduced or removed on many types of goods are still being collected as implementation conditions still need to be fulfilled or details of the deals are still being hammered out. These implementation lags mean it will take longer to see if the tariff changes impact freight volumes and rates” Said Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos.

Freightos

Freightos operates a digital freight platform and publishes benchmark indices that track ocean and air rates; it is relevant because its rate data and research inform tenders, mode shifts and hedging decisions for forwarders and shippers.

What To Watch

Policy: sector-specific tariffs from completed probes could hit pharma, semis and wood products. Procurement: formal entries replacing de minimis will change landed cost and cycle time for e-commerce flows. Capacity: a record order book amid weak pricing tests blank sailings and service reshuffles. Risk: carriers moving port calls to avoid new US fees add schedule noise that cascades into drayage and DC labor.

Reprice small-parcel imports under formal entry assumptions. Stress-test air vs ocean triggers for SKUs with tight service windows. Lock indexation language that reflects current benchmarks, not last year’s spike. If you hedge with container FFAs, align hedge tenor and notional to your sailings, not finance calendars. Validate DC staffing against longer customs clearance and diversion-stretched ETAs.

Falling spot rates are only a win if they survive customs changes, reliability gaps and policy aftershocks. Treat the next few weeks as a recalibration window: reset landed cost models, rebalance mode mix and use live indices to avoid chasing yesterday’s market.