After the Tariff Storm: How US Trade Deals Are Reshaping Supply Chain Strategies

Last week, The Supply Chainer explored how supply chain leaders are navigating a perfect storm of rising tariffs, workforce shortages, and accelerating technology adoption. Experts like Michelle Comerford of Biggins Lacy Shapiro & Co. highlighted reshoring as a strategic response to tariff uncertainty, while John Loyack from the North Carolina Community College System stressed the widening skills gap amid rapid digital transformation. This week, the focus shifts to how the latest US trade deals and tariff shifts are reshaping freight flows and supply chain strategies—offering both clarity and fresh challenges for industry professionals.

Tariffs: Certainty at a Cost

The US recently inked trade agreements with the EU, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, setting tariff baselines between 15% and 20%. While this brings welcome predictability after months of back-and-forth, it also raises the baseline tariffs above the current global 10% level. For automotive exports from the EU and Japan, the tariffs drop from a steep 25% to a still significant 15%. These changes are expected to encourage moderate rebounds in transatlantic shipments, especially for auto parts, but do little to ease overall cost pressures.

Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, notes that "while importers and exporters won’t be happy about tariff increases, the clarity these deals provide will likely restore more typical freight seasonality once frontloaded inventories run down." For supply chain professionals, this means balancing inventory strategies carefully to avoid costly overstock or stockouts amid shifting demand signals.

Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos

Freight Market Realities: Volatility Meets Overcapacity

Ocean freight rates reflect this complexity. Transatlantic container rates have held steady around $1,900 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) since May, indicating a market stabilizing after prior volatility. Asia–US West Coast rates peaked sharply at $6,000/FEU in mid-June due to tariff-driven rushes but have since settled back to $2,300/FEU, close to pre-peak season levels.

Interestingly, Asia–Northern Europe rates declined slightly last week but remain roughly 45% higher than late May, signaling continued congestion at major European hubs. This congestion could trigger additional peak season surcharges, adding to landed costs for importers. Yet, overcapacity is also looming as fleet expansions and slowing demand collide, putting downward pressure on future rates.

Air cargo tells a similar story: slight upticks in China-Europe rates contrast with flat or modest changes elsewhere, showing that markets remain cautious with limited frontloading ahead of tariff deadlines.

Strategic Implications for Supply Chain Professionals

What do these shifts mean beyond the numbers? For one, tariff clarity, while stabilizing, does not imply lower costs or fewer disruptions. The new 15–20% baseline tariffs create a ‘new normal’ that supply chain teams must embed into planning models and pricing forecasts. Inventory buffering strategies—already stressed by pandemic-era volatility—now require recalibration to avoid unnecessary capital lockup or service failures.

Moreover, freight capacity and congestion challenges persist. As Levine points out, “congestion at Europe’s major ports is unlikely to ease quickly, and carriers may impose surcharges to compensate.” Supply chain leaders need to maintain agility through enhanced visibility tools, diversified sourcing and routing options, and dynamic contract negotiations with carriers.

This dovetails with last week’s emphasis on workforce readiness and digital transformation. While technology offers powerful levers—AI-driven visibility, predictive analytics, and automation—without skilled personnel who understand how to wield these tools, resilience will remain elusive. As John Loyack warned, the disconnect between technology adoption and workforce capabilities remains a critical risk factor.

A Skeptical View: Stability Without Relief

The trade deals represent progress but stop short of delivering relief. Companies face tariff increases that will likely be passed down to consumers, squeezing margins and complicating pricing strategies. Meanwhile, supply chain disruptions—port congestion, capacity imbalances, and labor shortages—remain unmitigated by these agreements.

For professionals, this means that while headline-grabbing tariff wars have quieted, underlying supply chain fragility has not. The ‘new normal’ is one of ongoing tension between the desire for stable, predictable flows and the reality of cost inflation and operational constraints.

Looking Ahead

Supply chain leaders should view these developments as a call to refine their strategic playbooks. Tariff certainty helps—but only if integrated with deeper operational insights and workforce strategies. The interplay between global trade policy, freight markets, and internal capabilities will determine which companies weather the storm best.

The pressure to align inventory, logistics, and workforce planning amid evolving cost structures and volatile capacity conditions underscores a critical theme: adaptability trumps optimization. The supply chains that succeed will not just react to tariff or freight rate shifts, but anticipate and incorporate them into a holistic resilience mindset.