3 Wrong Predictions We Provided in 2026
Analysts and commentators rarely revisit the forecasts they got wrong. The safer path is to let those calls fade, move on to the next cycle, and avoid the discomfort of explaining why the industry took a different route. We chose the opposite. Looking back through our own coverage from the first half of the year, three pieces stood out where the direction we described did not match what actually unfolded.
The Forecast: Container Rates Would Decline 20–25 Percent by Mid-Year
In February 2026, Alex Badmington analyzed carrier capacity and major trade lanes and concluded that container rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific routes would fall 20–25 percent by mid-year. The assessment rested on continued fleet overcapacity, new vessel deliveries, and an expectation that Red Sea diversions would ease once security conditions improved. What happened in practice is that escalation of conflict involving Iran beginning in late February closed or severely restricted the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneous attacks and disruptions intensified in the Black Sea and around the Bab el-Mandeb. Fuel prices rose sharply, many carriers continued longer routing, and rate volatility persisted through the second and third quarters rather than the expected decline.
The Forecast: Agentic AI Would Reach Routine Use by End of Q2
In April this year, Hannah Kohr projected agentic AI tools would move from pilots into routine use for demand sensing, inventory optimization, and exception management across a majority of mid-to-large operators by the end of the second quarter, producing measurable reductions in excess stock and stockouts. What happened in practice is that adoption stayed limited. Surveys through mid- and late year showed most organizations still testing selected use cases without formal plans, with full scaling reported by only a small minority. Data quality, process readiness, and unclear ROI remained the dominant barriers, so the broad operational transformation did not materialize on the timeline described.
The Forecast: Nearshoring Would Visibly Reduce Asian Reliance by Summer
In July, Sophia Hernandez argued that companies would accelerate nearshoring and reshoring of manufacturing volume to Mexico and other nearby locations at a pace that would visibly reduce reliance on Asian suppliers for a range of intermediate and finished goods by summer. What happened in practice is that the shift was narrower. Uncertainty around USMCA renewal and ongoing tariff exposure led more firms to front-load orders, diversify existing Asian sources, and build contingency inventory than to execute large-scale production relocation. Asian exports, particularly of AI-related electronics and components, continued to account for a substantial share of global trade growth, so the expected volume migration did not occur at the scale projected.
Publishing the misses is less comfortable than publishing the hits. It also makes the next set of calls sharper. The same factors that upended these three forecasts - sudden geopolitical shifts, slower technology absorption, and the gap between policy intent and operational reality - are still in play. Tracking where earlier analysis diverged from outcomes is one way to reduce the distance the next time.
